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| What should you do? |
| Don't change your mind. |
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25% |
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| Change your mind. |
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37% |
[ 6 ] |
| It's 50 / 50 so it doesn't matter. |
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37% |
[ 6 ] |
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| Total Votes : 16 |
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JohnnyAardvark
Platinum Member
Joined: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1020
Location: UK
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 Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:38 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Of course, casinos have the advantage of the "long haul", over which random fluctuations (i.e., "luck") even out mathematically. In this puzzle you get just one shot, so you can still lose even when you adopt the winning strategy. Nevertheless, I'd take any advantage I could get! |
I agree about taking every advantage you can get!
If you were to play out this scenario a number of times it should prove this case to be true. i.e. the advantage in changing.
But does it fail in in the short term? Is the second phase REALLY part of the origonal game, where your odds were initially 1 in 3. Or is this now a totally new game where there are two possibilites and you have to chose one of the two? Since you are given the choice, to change, then if you do, you are taking a chance with "the new game?" Where as if you stick are you still playing the old game with the lesser odds?
Food for thought  Hope I've explained that as well as I had hoped
I'll check back tomorrow
Regards
Steve |
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bobkart
Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Posts: 6
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 3:48 am Post subject: |
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It's still the same game, just now you know the opened box does not have the keys in it. The odds are still 1:3 that the box you picked is the one with the keys in it. But now it's 2:3 that the unopened box you didn't pick has the keys.
Only if after opening the third box did the game show host randomly redistribute the keys between the two remaining boxes would it be the "new game" you're thinking of. THEN it would be even odds. |
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Fingers
Full Member
Joined: 31 Jul 2003
Posts: 202
Location: SE UK
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| Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 8:38 am Post subject: |
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Well put sir.
And, as someone pointed out, if there were 1000000 boxes then you would be 999999/1000000 more likely to win if you switched.
Personally - I'd ask the host to consider the tree falling in an empty forest - and whilst he's pondering I'd leg it with both boxes.
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JohnnyAardvark
Platinum Member
Joined: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1020
Location: UK
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| Posted: Tue Aug 23, 2005 4:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Fingers wrote: | Well put sir.
And, as someone pointed out, if there were 1000000 boxes then you would be 999999/1000000 more likely to win if you switched.
Personally - I'd ask the host to consider the tree falling in an empty forest - and whilst he's pondering I'd leg it with both boxes. |
Yes, Nice explaination BobKart.....
I thought the starting with 1000000 boxes helped clear it up for me. In that scenario you would really have to change your mind. You would feel very hard done to if you lost that one!
Since the improvement/change in odds is relatively small (I would say relatively negligable in comparison to starting with 100000:1) I would almost be inclined to stick with original choice. Only because I have a sence of how my luck works! Anyhow thats all from me on this as I fear the odds are against me 
Regards
Steve |
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Downtown_Charlie
Platinum Member
Joined: 27 Oct 2002
Posts: 924
Location: Netherlands
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| Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| JohnnyAardvark wrote: | | Downtown_Charlie wrote: | | does anyone hear rember Michael Miles and Take Your Pick? |
no, |
BONGGG!
sorry i'm late but but i just wanted someome to say yes or no )for those who are old enough to remember the yes/no interlude(
| phillipthorne wrote: | Michael Miles - black and white TV - Take your Pick - peak time viewing. Goodness I feel old !!!!  Who can forget the Yes No Interlude and Hughie Green on Double Your Money. Now I feel REALLY old !!
Don't tell me you remember it too D.C. ?? You're not going to reminisce about the Flower Pot men and Muffin the Mule as well are you 
http://www.whirligig-tv.co.uk/tv/adults/quiz/quiz.htm for a trip down memory lane.
Best wishes
Phillip |
i don't actually remember Muffin the Mule.
and i defy anyone to prove otherwise.
slán
D C
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ronbo27
Platinum Member
Joined: 08 Sep 2003
Posts: 984
Location: Nova Scotia,Canada
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| Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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.....and are you unamimous in saying that?....Lol
Cheerio!
Ron
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Ron Mac Donald
http://www.soundclick.com/ronbo |
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JohnnyAardvark
Platinum Member
Joined: 25 May 2004
Posts: 1020
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Aug 25, 2005 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| Downtown_Charlie wrote: | | JohnnyAardvark wrote: | | Downtown_Charlie wrote: | | does anyone hear rember Michael Miles and Take Your Pick? |
no, |
BONGGG!
sorry i'm late but but i just wanted someome to say yes or no )for those who are old enough to remember the yes/no interlude(
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 Dohhh! |
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bobkart
Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Posts: 6
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:03 am Post subject: |
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| Slight non-sequitur, but: Einstein Puzzle - in case anyone hasn't seen that one yet. |
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Marc
Platinum Member
Joined: 22 Jan 2002
Posts: 997
Location: USA
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| Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2005 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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Some psychologists would say your first choice is often your best choice as our minds are capable of resolving things extremely quickly and that changing one's mind is an emotional response. From the game show host perspective they are a) trying to create suspense for the audience but b) one could suspect they are incented to get you to switch to the losing box using subtle hints.
Marc
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A rolling MOSS gathers no polyphony... |
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bobkart
Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Posts: 6
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:11 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm sure there's some truth to that, in situations where the choice was made using some basis for making the decision. But since in this situation they are assuming you have no basis for making the original decision (each box is equally likely to have the keys), it's hard to imagine how the first choice could have better than 1:3 odds. |
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ronbo27
Platinum Member
Joined: 08 Sep 2003
Posts: 984
Location: Nova Scotia,Canada
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| Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 6:50 pm Post subject: |
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Had to try the Einstein Puzzle...like these sorts of things. Sent you an e-mail. How`d I do?
Ron.
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Ron Mac Donald
http://www.soundclick.com/ronbo |
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bobkart
Joined: 22 Aug 2005
Posts: 6
Location: Bellevue, WA
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| Posted: Sat Sep 10, 2005 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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| ronbo27 wrote: | Had to try the Einstein Puzzle...like these sorts of things. Sent you an e-mail. How`d I do?
Ron. |
Yep, you got it.
I see typical solution times of "about an hour" for that one, by the way. It usually takes up a sheet of paper too. |
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